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Home›Development agency›Can NBA free agency be predicted by an AI model? We give a chance

Can NBA free agency be predicted by an AI model? We give a chance

By Suk Bouffard
June 29, 2022
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In 2019, Joshua Ebrahim left his job as an agent at Rosenhaus Sports and started working at a new company. He wanted to solve a problem he encountered too often as an agent—that he didn’t have enough information and leverage during negotiations.

Without it, he felt the return on investment was affected, both in time and money. He set out to create a platform that would help; he first envisioned it as a Bloomberg terminal for NBA players. Now it’s ProFitX, an AI-powered program that creates ratings and projections for league players. He hopes to use it to help players with free agency and contract negotiations. Teams now regularly use analytics departments, and some franchises have invested heavily in theirs. On the stakeholder side, the use of analytics may differ from agency to agency.

“It was my mission; to create transparency and benefit athletes, help them reach their financial potential,” said Ebrahim. “Because if you don’t have numbers in place, how are you going to know what your worth is?”

Ebrahim partnered with an AI development company to design a platform that could create ratings for players, using 130 different performance metrics, and use those ratings to assign them a current contract value and in real time. The model assesses what they should do over the next few years, all within the current parameters of the ABC – in addition to a wider range of assessments that its model could create such as projected future performance and best team adjustments.

This season he signed a contract to work with the Dallas Mavericks. Former Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks, now an ESPN analyst, sits on the company’s board. Marks helped refine the model. Ebrahim has consulted with agents who have used his platform and he wants to use it to help players get what they are worth. Eventually, he would like to grow in football and the NFL.

“It’s a tool that we think can help a lot of athletes during the season, during the offseason, during contract negotiations, during player development,” he said.

Teams often use analytics to model player contract values ​​and project their performance. It helps them set a value for players in free agency; ProFitX does the same. Although values ​​may vary between teams or even individual executives in a front office, Athleticism asked Ebrahim to produce contract projections for several free agents this summer to see how ProFitx values ​​them and what he expects them to earn in free agency. Monetary values ​​are the contract that ProFitX believes each player is valued in terms of the player’s performance, injury history, development and potential. All of this is put into a single output number. Ebrahim believes these players will sign within this financial range.

Jalen Brunson
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $34.2 million
Free agency projection: $27.3 million, with a range between $23.3 million and $31.2 million

Deandre Ayton
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $28.2 million
Free agency projection: $29.7 million, with a range between $26.2 million and $33.26 million

James Harden
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $40.4 million
Free agency projection: $39.88 million, with a range of $38-41.7 million

Collin Sexton
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $4.1 million
Free agency projection: $33.25 million, with a range between $29.1 and $37.45 million

Miles Bridges
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $29.9 million
Free agency projection: $28.2 million, with a range between $24.3 million and $32.1 million

Victor Oladipo
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $4.1 million
Free agency projection: $12.6 million, with a range between $9.2 million and $16 million

Mo Bamba
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $17.4 million
Free agency projection: $11.1 million contract, with a range between $9.4 and $12.8 million

Michael Robinson
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $12.2 million
Free agency projection: $10 million, with a range between $7.8 million and $12.2 million

Jusuf Nurkic
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $19.8 million
Free agency projection: $16.2 million, with a range between $12.7 million and $19.76 million

Isaiah Hartenstein
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $14.1 million
Free agency projection: $7.8 million, with a range between $6.5 million and $9.1 million

Anfernee Simons
Real-time value during the 2021-22 season: $18.1 million
Free agency projection: $16.19 million, with a range between $13.6 million and $18.8 million

RJ Barrett (rookie overtime)
Real time value during the 2021-22 season: $26.67 million
Free agency projection: $32.9 million, with a range starting at $28.67 million

Marvin Bagley III
Real time value during the 2021-22 season: $10.3 million
Free agency projection: $12.7 million, with a range of $11-14.4 million

(Top photo: Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports. Embedded images courtesy of ProFitX)

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